LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – DECEMBER 06: (L-R) Opponents Islam Makhachev of Russia and Arman Tsarukyan of … [+] Georgia face off during the UFC 311 press conference at MGM Grand Garden Arena on December 06, 2024 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC)
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The UFC presents its first pay-per-view card on the promotion’s 2025 schedule, UFC 311, on Saturday, January 18. The event takes place at Intuit Dome in Inglewood, California. Two title fights headline the event. In the main event, Islam Makhachev puts his title on the line against Arman Tsarukyan in a rematch. While in the UFC 311 co-main event, bantamweight titleholder Merab Dvalishvili defends his belt against Umar Nurmagomedov. We look at the betting odds for the UFC 311 fight card main event and offer our preview, picks, and predictions for that bout.
UFC 311 Fight Card Main Event: Islam Makhachev Vs. Arman Tsarukyan 2
SAINT PETERSBURG, RUSSIA – APRIL 20: (L-R) Islam Makhachev of Russia celebrates his victory over … [+] Arman Tsarukyan of Russia in their lightweight bout during the UFC Fight Night event at Yubileyny Sports Palace on April 20, 2019 in Saint Petersburg, Russia. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images)
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Since their first meeting, which took place in 2019, and Makhachev won by unanimous decision, Makhachev (26-1) has compiled a 9-0 record with seven finishes (five submissions, two knockouts) and two decisions. Makhachev captured the vacant UFC lightweight title in October 2022 with a submission win over former UFC 155-pound titleholder Charles Oliveira.
Makhachev has defended his crown three times since defeating Oliveira. His first two title defenses were a decision win and knockout of then-UFC featherweight champ Alexander Volkanovski. In his most recent outing, Makhachev submitted former UFC interim lightweight champion Dustin Poirier in the main event of UFC 302.
Makhachev has earned fight-night bonus awards for each of his UFC title fights.
Tsarukyan (22-3) has a 9-1 mark since his loss to Makhachev, which came in his UFC debut. He rebounded from that defeat with five consecutive victories before dropping a decision to Mateusz Gamrot in June 2022.
After the loss to Gamrot, Tsarukyan ran off four straight wins with two knockouts and two decisions. He is coming off a split-decision victory over Oliveira at UFC 300 in April.
After the loss to Gamrot, Tsarukyan ran off four straight wins with two knockouts and two decisions. He is coming off a split-decision victory over Oliveira at UFC 300 in April.
UFC 311 Fight Card Main Event Betting Odds: Islam Makhachev Vs. Arman Tsarukyan 2
ABU DHABI, UNITED ARAB EMIRATES – OCTOBER 21: Islam Makhachev of Russia reacts after his knockout … [+] victory against Alexander Volkanovski of Australia in the UFC lightweight championship fight during the UFC 294 event at Etihad Arena on October 21, 2023 in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. (Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images)
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According to BetOnline, Makhachev was the betting favorite when odds opened. The champ was listed at -255, while Tsarukyan was the +215 betting underdog.
Today, Makhachev checks in at -330. Tsarukyan is currently listed at +255.
The closing odds of their first fight saw Makhachev enter the Octagon as the -300 betting favorite over the +240 Tsarukyan.
UFC 311 Fight Card Main Event: Islam Makhachev Vs. Arman Tsarukyan 2 Significant Stats
Makhachev lands 2.65 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy of 59 percent. The champ absorbs 1.54 significant strikes per minute, and his striking defense is 61 percent. Makhachev picks up 3.19 takedowns per 15 minutes and has a success rate of 53 percent. Meanwhile, his takedown defense is 90 percent.
Tsarukyan lands 3.79 significant strikes per minute with a success rate of 48 percent. The challenger’s striking defense is 53 percent, and he absorbs 1.84 significant strikes per minute. Tsarukyan averages 3.25 takedowns per 15 minutes and has a takedown success rate of 37 percent. His takedown defense is 75 percent.
In their first matchup, Makhachev landed 14 of 20 attempted significant strikes, while connecting on four of his nine takedown attempts. Makhachev had 6:06 of control time. His total strikes landed were 47 of 53 attempts. As for Tsarukyan, he landed 13 of 43 significant strikes and 60 of his 90 overall striking attempts. Tsarukyan went one for 12 in takedowns and had 1:47 of control time.
UFC 311 Fight Card Main Event: Islam Makhachev Vs. Arman Tsarukyan 2 Predictions And Picks
Makhachev and Tsarukyan have both improved since their first meeting, but the champion remains the better all-around competitor. Tsarukyan will give Makhachev a tough fight, but it’s hard to see anywhere that the challenger can catch Makhachev slipping. The betting pick is for Makhachev to earn a decision win.
UFC 311 Fight Card Main Event: Makhachev Vs. Tsarukyan 1 Recap
When these two first stared each other down from across the Octagon, Makhachev was 16-1 overall and 4-1 in the UFC. As for Tsarukyan, he had an overall mark of 13-1 and was making his UFC debut.
When these two first stared each other down from across the Octagon, Makhachev was 16-1 overall and 4-1 in the UFC. As for Tsarukyan, he had an overall mark of 13-1 and was making his UFC debut. Tsarukyan looked to establish his striking and keep distance from Makhachev with kicks early, but the two quickly went into a wrestling battle, with both fighters working well with pressure against the fence before Makhachev scored a nifty takedown that put Tsarukyan on his back. However, he did not accept the position and returned to his feet.
Tsarukyan then responded with a takedown of his own, but like Makhachev, he could not establish a ground position before his opponent got to his feet. The two exchanged head kick attempts from distance to open the second stanza. As in the first round, the two mixed takedown attempts with their striking with Makhachev getting the best of those attempts thanks to his chain wrestling and relentless attack. Once on the mat, Tsarukyan looked for a kimura but could not set the submission attempt. Tsarukyan then got back to his feet, and the two engaged in a battle against the fence for the remainder of the round.
SAINT PETERSBURG, RUSSIA – APRIL 20: (L-R) Islam Makhachev of Russia controls the body of Arman … [+] Tsarukyan of Russia in their lightweight bout during the UFC Fight Night event at Yubileyny Sports Palace on April 20, 2019 in Saint Petersburg, Russia. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images)
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The third round mirrored the first 10 minutes of the contest, with both men active in the striking department early before returning to their wrestling. As in the first two rounds, Makhachev had more success with two takedowns and 2:31 of control time.
The fast-paced 15-minute battle went to Makhachev with scores of 30-27, 30-27, and 29-28. The contest took home “Fight of the Night” honors and established both men as potential title contenders. The UFC commentary team, who had not seen Tsarukyan in the Octagon, were especially effusive in their praise of his effort in his UFC debut.
The fight ended with Makhachev landing 47 of 53 total strikes while going four for nine in takedown attempts. He added 6:06 of control time. Meanwhile, Tsarukyan landed 60 of 90 total strikes and had one takedown on 12 attempts, while picking up 1:47 of control time. Neither man logged a submission or a reversal.
Rewatching their first meeting, it’s no surprise to see these two running things back in a title fight in 2024.
UFC 311 Fight Card: Dvalishvili Vs. Nurmagomedov Odds And Predictions
UFC 311 Fight Card Date
Saturday, January 18, 2025
UFC 311 Fight Card Location
Intuit Dome in Inglewood, California
UFC 311 Fight Card Time And How To Watch And Stream
Early prelims: 6:00 p.m. ET – ESPN+
Prelims: 8:00 p.m. ET – ESPNews
PPV Card: 10 p.m. ET – ESPN+ PPV
The UFC 311 fight card is the first pay-per-view even on the 2025 UFC schedule. Stay tuned for more coverage from UFC 311, as well as results, reactions, recaps on fight night.
