Gary Davenport@@IDPSharksFeatured Columnist IVJanuary 27, 2025
- Patrick MahomesEzra Shaw/Getty Images
- After Sunday’s conference championship games, the participants for Super Bowl LIX are set. If you like sequels, you’re in luck—in a rematch of Super Bowl XLVII, the Philadelphia Eagles will attempt to prevent the Kansas City Chiefs from becoming the first team in NFL history to win three straight Super Bowls.
- The Chiefs won that game 38-35, overcoming a 10-point halftime deficit with a 24-point second half. That game will undoubtedly be analyzed six ways from Sunday—over the next two weeks, that’s all we have to do. Analyze. Scrutinize. Proselytize.
- Of course, much has changed since that game. The Eagles now have running back Saquon Barkley and a revamped secondary. The Chiefs have any number of new faces as well—and the old one that has steered the team to within 60 minutes of history.
- The Chiefs and Eagles are both excellent teams, but they aren’t flawless ones. Both have areas of strength and potential weaknesses. An excellent offensive line, but questions at linebacker. Concerns on the back end, and arguably the greatest quarterback ever.
- As we kick off the fortnight before the Big Easy Throwdown the Chiefs hope is a Big Easy Threedown, let’s take a look at each position group on both teams and where the edges exist that could determine who will lift the Lombardi Trophy at the Superdome.
- Patrick MahomesAaron M. Sprecher/Getty Images
- This position-by-position matchup comparison starts out with a toughie. There’s a reason why these teams are playing in the Super Bowl—they are led by two of the very best quarterbacks in the National Football League.
- Jalen Hurts of the Eagles didn’t post especially gaudy numbers throwing the ball in 2024—his 193.5 passing yards per game in the regular season ranked outside the top 25 for the season. Hurts’ 246 yards passing in the NFC Championship Game was just the second time since mid-November that he’s thrown for 200-plus yards. But Hurts threw just five interceptions in the regular season, ranked third among quarterbacks in rushing yards and tacked on 14 scores on the ground.
- Still, as dangerous as Hurts may be, he isn’t Patrick Mahomes.
- Mahomes’ numbers in 2024, by his standards at least, were only so-so. Mahomes threw for less than 4,000 yards for the first time since he took over as the Chiefs starter. His 26 touchdown passes tied his career-low as a starter. Mahomes was just 16th in the league in passer rating.
- But we’re talking about the best quarterback of his generation. When all is said and done, Mahomes may be the greatest signal-caller to ever play the game. This will mark Mahomes’ fifth Super Bowl trip—and he’s yet to celebrate his 30th birthday.
- Hurts will head to New Orleans knowing that he will have to play his best game of the season. Possibly of his career.
- Because as the Eagles already found out the hard way in Super Bowl LVII that if you don’t bring your absolute best against Mahomes, you will get beat.
- Saquon BarkleyKathryn Riley/Getty Images
- Entering the 2024 season, the plan for the Kansas City Chiefs was for Isiah Pacheco to be the team’s lead back. Pacheco averaged 4.6 yards per carry in 2024 and topped 1,100 total yards.
- That plan went out the window when Pacheco broke his leg, and the Chiefs looked to their past to fill the void, going with Kareem Hunt as the No. 1 back for much of the season. Hunt averaged just 3.6 yards per carry, but he surpassed 900 total yards and kept the Chiefs offense from becoming one-dimensional. Still, for the season, the Chiefs were just 22nd in the NFL running the ball, averaging just over 105 yards per game.
- The Eagles were, um, better running the ball—and that was because Saquon Barkley went full Godzilla on the NFL in 2024.
- Against the Washington Commanders in the NFC Championship Game, Barkley logged 118 rushing yards, scored three times and averaged almost eight yards a carry—and that was a below-average game for the 27-year-old.
- In his first season with the Eagles, Barkley became the ninth running back in NFL history to eclipse 2,000 yards on the ground. He averaged over 125 rushing yards per game, averaged 5.8 yards per carry, caught 33 passes and scored 15 total touchdowns.
- Barkley now owns the Eagles’ franchise records for rushing yards in a season (2,005), the most 100-yard games in a season (12), the most rushing yards in a regular-season game (255) and the most rushing yards in a postseason game (205).
- The Eagles led the NFC in rushing in 2024, and Barkley was the locomotive for that train.
- If the Eagles seal the deal and win Super Bowl LIX, Barkley will go down as arguably the most impactful free-agent signing in NFL history.
- A.J. BrownKathryn Riley/Getty Images
- With Jalen Hurts posting relatively modest passing numbers the past couple of months, the receiving stats for A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith suffered. Both also missed multiple games this season—four apiece.
- But despite playing in just 13 games, Brown was still able to eclipse 1,000 receiving yards for the third time in as many seasons in Philly. Brown is the prototypical big-bodied No. 1 receiver, and his yards per catch were actually up over two full yards relative to last year. Brown also played a major role in Sunday’s NFC title game win, hauling in six of eight targets for 96 yards and a score.
- For Smith, it was something of a disappointing season statistically—his 833 yards and 12.3 yards per catch were both career lows. But Smith still found the end zone eight times and has a pair of 1,000-yard seasons over four years in the pros.
- The pair are one of the better duos at the position in the NFL.
- The Kansas City Chiefs spent considerable resources trying to upgrade a wideout group that struggled to make big plays in 2023. The team signed Marquise Brown in free agency and spent their first draft pick on Texas speedster Xavier Worthy. When Brown got hurt, the Chiefs acquired DeAndre Hopkins from the Tennessee Titans.
- Worthy has improved as the season has worn on, including six catches, 85 yards, and a score in Sunday’s AFC Championship Game win over the Buffalo Bills. But Worthy was the only Chiefs wide receiver to surpass 600 yards for the season. Brown is only now showing flashes of being close to 100 percent, and Hopkins is more big name than big numbers at this point in his career.
- The Chiefs may have more bodies people have heard of at wide receiver. But the Eagles have the two best receivers in this game.
- And that could most assuredly matter.
- Travis KelceJamie Squire/Getty Images
- There was a time not that long ago when the tight end comparison between these two teams would have been settled in a hot second—it was Travis Kelce’s world, and everyone else was just living in it.
- But as the old saying goes, Father Time is undefeated, and at 35, Kelce had (by his standards) a down year. His 823 receiving yards were Kelce’s fewest since 2013. So were his three touchdown receptions.
- Dallas Goedert of the Eagles hardly had a flawless season either—injuries limited the seventh-year veteran to 10 games, 42 catches, 496 yards and a pair of touchdowns.
- However, both tight ends showed glimpses of the impact that makes them high-end starters at their position in the postseason. Kelce was quiet in the AFC Championship Game, but he torched the Houston Texans for seven catches for 117 yards and a score in the Divisional Round. Goedert led the Eagles in receptions in the NFC Championship Game, hauling in seven passes for 85 yards.
- Both of these tight ends can be real factors in Super Bowl LIX—you can bet the rent that Eagles defensive coordinator Vic Fangio will try to take Patrick Mahomes’ favorite passing-game target away.
- But Kelce has a long history of stepping up in big games. When these teams met in Super Bowl LVII, Kelce caught all six of his targets for 81 yards and a score.
- Goedert is a quality NFL starter, but Kelce is an all-time great. Add in that Noah Gray is a better second tight end than Grant Calcaterra, and the Chiefs have the edge here.
- Lane JohnsonMitchell Leff/Getty Images
- It shouldn’t surprise that the offensive line is a strength for both of this year’s Super Bowl participants. Matt Bitonti of Footballguys ranks both lines among the four best in the NFL.
- As was already mentioned, the Eagles paced the NFC in rushing this season. Philly surrendered 45 sacks in the regular season, but that had as much to do with Jalen Hurts holding the ball and extending plays as deficiencies in the blocking ahead of him. Three of Philly’s starters up front (tackle Lane Johnson, guard Landon Dickerson and center Cam Jurgens) were named Pro Bowlers. Johnson and Jordan Mailata were named second-team All-Pro.
- The strength of Kansas City’s line is the interior, and that’s where the team received some individual accolades. Guards Joe Thuney and Trey Smith and center Creed Humphrey all made the Pro Bowl, and Humphrey and Thuney both earned first-team All-Pro honors.
- However, it’s not all sunshine and puppies for these offensive lines, because it never is this late in the season. The health of Dickerson and Jurgens will be a hot topic of conversation in the lead-up to Super Bowl LIX. Right tackle Jawaan Taylor has been a penalty machine in Kansas City (17 per Pro Football Focus). The left tackle spot has been an issue all season—so much so the team has tried Thuney there at times.
- The NFC champions have the advantage here, but it’s not a glaring one, especially if Jurgens or Dickerson can’t play in the Super Bowl.
- Nolan SmithTerence Lewis/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
- Where star power on the defensive line in Super Bowl LIX is concerned, Kansas City’s Chris Jones is easily the biggest name. Don’t pay any attention to Jones’ five sacks after 10.5 in 2023—his inclusion as both a Pro Bowler and a first-team All-Pro says more about his impact on games than raw stats.
- Jones isn’t a one-man band on a defensive front that logged 39 sacks in 2024. Edge-rusher George Karlaftis has come into his own in his third season—the 23-year-old has logged 18.5 sacks the past two seasons, adding three more in this year’s playoffs. Mike Danna and Tershawn Wharton are capable NFL players.
- But just as on the offensive side of the ball, the Eagles have an advantage in the trenches on defense.
- This isn’t the Eagles line that terrified the league to the tune of 70 sacks during their last Super Bowl run. Edge-rusher Josh Sweat led the team with eight sacks, and free-agent addition Bryce Huff was a non-factor.
- But the Eagles are deep up front. Defensive tackle Jalen Carter and edge-rusher Nolan Smith have blossomed in their second seasons, with Carter making the Pro Bowl. Veterans like edge-rusher Brandon Graham and tackle Milton Williams allow Philadelphia to rotate their linemen throughout the game. This isn’t a line that gets tired.
- The winner of this game will likely be the team that more effectively pressures the opposing quarterback.
- On paper at least, the Eagles are better equipped to do that.
- Nick BoltonPerry Knotts/Getty Images
- There isn’t a better story at the linebacker position this season than Philadelphia’s Zack Baun.
- When Baun joined the Eagles in 2024, he was a seldom-used edge-rusher and special teamer with 88 tackles in four seasons with the New Orleans Saints. After being moved to off-ball linebacker by Eagles defensive coordinator Vic Fangio and becoming an every-down starter, Baun finished sixth in the league in stops and became a first-team All-Pro and a Defensive Player of the Year finalist.
- The problem for the Eagles is that behind Baun…there isn’t a lot. With youngster Nakobe Dean out for the season, the Eagles have been forced to turn to a combination of journeyman Oren Burks and rookie Jeremiah Trotter Jr. Burks is a solid reserve, and Trotter may well have a bright future ahead of him, but that spot has become a potential weakness for the Eagles’ defense.
- Meanwhile, while Baun is trying to establish himself as one of the NFL’s best off-ball linebackers, Kansas City’s Nick Bolton already has. Even in what most consider a “down” season for the fourth-year veteran, Bolton has topped 100 total tackles and set a career-high with three sacks.
- Batterymate Drue Tranquill isn’t the same caliber player, but he’s a steady veteran who has topped 90 total stops in two of the past three seasons.
- There’s a reason why the Chiefs ranked eighth in the regular season against the run, surrendering 101.8 yards a game. Containing Saquon Barkley has to be priority No. 1 for Kansas City in Super Bowl LIX.
- It will fall to Bolton and Tranquill to do that.
- Cooper DeJeanKathryn Riley/Getty Images
- This is another tough call. Both the Eagles and Chiefs were solid against the pass. Each allowed less than 220 passing yards per game in the regular season.
- But the Eagles topped the league at 174.2 yards per game—a remarkable turnaround after ranking near the bottom of the NFL against the pass in 2023.
- The engine for that turnaround was the 2024 draft and the selection of Toledo’s Quinyon Mitchell and Iowa’s Cooper DeJean with Philly’s first two draft picks. DeJean has already blossomed into one of the better slot defenders in the game. Mitchell didn’t have an interception in the regular season but has picked up a pair in the postseason.
- A legitimate argument can be made that among the top three corners in Philly, the weak link is veteran Darius Slay—who has six Pro Bowl nods over a dozen seasons in the league.
- The Chiefs, on the other hand, may have the best corner of the lot. In three seasons, Trent McDuffie has become a legitimate “shutdown” corner—his passer rating against in 2024 was 82.9, and McDuffie barely allowed 10 yards a reception in the regular season.
- This position could well be the one that decides Super Bowl LIX. Can DeJean keep Travis Kelce in check? Can Mitchell stop fellow rookie Xavier Worthy from getting behind the defense for a long one? Can McDuffie play on an island and allow Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo to give help to the likes of Jaylen Watson or Nazeeh Johnson against A.J. Brown or DeVonta Smith?
- The answers to those questions could determine who gets a confetti bath at the end of Super Bowl LIX. But the early edge belongs to Philadelphia.
- Chauncey Gardner-JohnsonMitchell Leff/Getty Images
- There are no household names at safety for the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles. When teams are paying quarterbacks $50 million a season and other positions big bucks, costs gotta get cut somewhere.
- That’s not to say that there isn’t some talent at the back end of these defenses. But there are question marks as well.
- For the Eagles, Reed Blankenship is a tenacious player who has quietly posted a passer rating against of 72.5 this season. But he’s not the fleetest of foot or a particularly big safety.
- Meanwhile, in Justin Reid the Chiefs have a ferocious hitter who knows the scheme in Kansas City as well as anyone in the secondary. But he’s not great in coverage—Reid’s passer rating against of 108.4 in coverage in 2024 was the second-highest number of his seven-year career. Bryan Cook was fourth on the Chiefs with 78 tackles in the regular season, but he’s an average talent on a good day.
- The wild card here? The player who tips the scales and could make a real difference in the game? Eagles safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson picked off six passes in the regular season for the second time in three seasons. However, while Gardner-Johnson has racked up big plays, he has also been victimized by opposing quarterbacks with regularity. The 27-year-old was credited with 23 completions allowed in 2024. Eight went for touchdowns.
- Frankly, this is a coin-flip, but Gardner-Johnson’s propensity for the sort of play that can swing a Super Bowl gets the Eagles yet another edge in Super Bowl LIX.
- Harrison ButkerDavid Eulitt/Getty Images
- Kickers are people too…allegedly. And if the game comes down to a last-second kick, the two-time defending champions have a decided edge.
- It’s been something of a rough season for Philadelphia’s Jake Elliotte. He has missed eight kicks and has a success percentage in 2024 of less than 80 percent. Elliott has just flat-out been bad from long distance—one field goal over 50 yards in the regular season in seven attempts.
- Harrison Butker of the Chiefs hasn’t exactly lit the world on fire, as he missed a month and had a success rate under 85 percent for the regular season. But the 29-year-old has played his part in the Chiefs dynasty. Per Sunday’s AFC Championship Game broadcast, Butker has never missed a field goal in the fourth quarter or overtime of a postseason game.
- The punters are a wash. Philly’s Braden Mann and Kansas City’s Matt Araiza have nearly identical net averages and percentages of kicks inside the 20. Six of one, half a dozen of the other.
- It’s difficult to assess the return games, in part because this is the Super Bowl—if ever there was a time to pull out a wrinkle in that regard or run a trick play, this is it. But it’s worth noting that Chiefs running back Samaje Perine didn’t have a kick return under 20 yards in the regular season and peeled off a 56-yarder. Eagles running back Kenneth Gainwell enjoyed similar success—he averaged 25.3 yards per return in 2024.
- Expect to see a lot of touchbacks on February 9.