Thursday Night Football gives us an NFC West matchup of great importance with the division still up for grabs. The Rams and 49ers square off at Levi Stadium in Santa Clara, Calif., as they both chase the first-place Seahawks.
Let’s get to my 49ers vs. Rams props for Thursday Night Football.
Sam Farley’s 49ers vs Rams Player Props
- Matthew Stafford Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-128, FanDuel)
- Kyren Williams Over 9.5 Receiving Yards (-110, bet365)
- Cooper Kupp Under 5.5 Receptions (+115, DraftKings)
- George Kittle Anytime Touchdown (+145, Caesars)
Matthew Stafford Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-128)
The Rams enter Week 15 in red-hot form after a sensational 44-42 win over the Bills. A big part of that was Matthew Stafford‘s performance as he picked apart a strong Bills defense. That gives us real hope of him doing it again here.
Stafford didn’t throw with multiple touchdown passes until Week 8, which is when Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua returned from injury. Since then, he has thrown multiple TDs in six of seven games, including each of his last four.
Stafford is thriving right now, as is this Rams offense.
Kyren Williams Over 9.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Rams RB Kyren Williams had a career-high 29 carries last week against the Bills, but we’re backing his receiving yards total here.
Williams has 10 receiving yards on two targets last week, and he has registered more than 9.5 receiving yards in seven of 13 games this season. Williams isn’t a key player in the Rams passing game, but he did catch both of his targets for 27 yards and a touchdown when these teams met back in Week 3.
The 49ers are giving up 32.1 receiving yards per game to opposing running backs this season. Given that track record and Williams’ numbers in these teams’ first meeting, I’m expecting similar usage and a double-digit receiving yards game for Williams.
Cooper Kupp Under 5.5 Receptions (+115)
Only four teams have given up fewer receptions to wide receivers this season than the 49ers, who have allowed 139, which is an average of 10.6 per game.
The Rams are a pass-first team, but the math doesn’t add up on their playmakers’ reception totals. Nacua’s is 7.5 and Kupp 5.5. That’s not even including anyone else. Of the two, I’ll fade Kupp.
Kupp has gone under this total in each of the last two weeks. The concern is that the Rams are focused on getting the ball in Nacua’s hands. He saw 14 targets last week and had five carries, as well.
Nacua is the focal point for the Rams offense right now, much more so than Kupp, who we’ll fade in the receptions market on Thursday night.
George Kittle Anytime Touchdown (+155)
The 49ers’ red-zone strategy is to hand the ball off to whichever running back is healthy or throw the ball toGeorge Kittle.
Kittle is tied with Travis Kelce for the most red-zone targets in the NFL this season among tight ends, and he also leads the 49ers in that category. In fact, he has as many as Jauan Jennings and Deebo Samuel combined.
All eight of Kittle’s touchdowns have come in the red zone, and he has gone two games without scoring, which is his longest scoreless streak of the season. The 49ers’ top four running backs might be out with Isaac Guerendo‘s injury on Sunday, so it’s possible we don’t see them rely as heavily on the backfield in the red zone as they usually would. That makes it more likely for Kittle to be San Francisco’s red-zone focus.
