We have a full slate of NBA action scheduled for tonight, with a total of 9 matchups on-tap. Here’s my NBA picks, predictions, and best bets for Saturday, February 1.
NBA Picks, Predictions for Saturday, February 1
Kings at Thunder
Saturday, Feb 1
8 p.m. ET
NBCS-CA
Kings OddsSpreadTotalMoneyline+7.5
-112
235.5
-108o / -112u
+250
Thunder OddsSpreadTotalMoneyline-7.5
-108
235.5
-108o / -112u
-310
There’s a fascinating trend sequence in this game. OKC has the No.1 defense in the league, by a huge margin. So their totals are always compressed. But when the total is greater than 230 in Thunder games this season, the over is 6-1. But the way it’s happened is rare: the Thunder team total is 5-2 to the over, and the opponent team total is 5-2 to the under.
Finally, in the 29 games that OKC has covered the spread this season, the Thunder team total is 22-7 to the over, and the opponent team total is 22-7 to the under.
The Kings had a brief moment of hope and light after firing Mike Brown when they tore through a good stretch. But they’ve lost three of four, and with De’Aaron Fox’s trade request, team morale is at an all-time low. It’s not a good time to head to Oklahoma City.
Even with Jalen Williams out, I make this game OKC -11.
OKC -7.5, Thunder over 121.5 points, Kings under 114.5 points is +350 on DraftKings. We’re going for a beatdown by the Thunder here.
But wait, there’s more! As a separate very, very small SGP play, I’m also going to play the under. I have the Thunder projected at 121 points, and the Kings at just 104, for an under play. Add the under and we jump to +800.
SGP: Thunder -7.5 + Thunder over 121.5 points + Kings under 114.5 points (+350)
Lakers at Knicks
Saturday, Feb 1
8:30 p.m. ET
ABC
Lakers OddsSpreadTotalMoneyline+11
-112
226
-108o / -112u
+380
Knicks OddsSpreadTotalMoneyline-11
-108
226
-108o / -112u
-500
When the Lakers lose without Anthony Davis since the Bubble, the over is 33-30, 52 percent, nothing to write home about. But in road losses since the Bubble without Davis, the over is 23-15, and the opponent team total is 26-11-1 to the over.
I make the Knicks‘ total 122.3 vs. a line of 118.5.
The Lakers, somehow, someway, are third worst in points in the paint allowed this season. Precious Achiuwa is third among the Knicks behind Karl-Anthony Towns and Jalen Brunson in points in the paint per 36 minutes. So I’ll take Achiuwa to put up 6+ points at +100, and throw in his over 4.5 (-125) in a Same Game Parlay.
PICKS: Knicks team total over 118.5, Precious Achiuwa 6+ points (+100)
SGP: Knicks over 118.5, Achiuwa over 4.5 points, Knicks ML (+222)
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Suns at Blazers
Saturday, Feb 1
10 p.m. ET
KATU
Suns OddsSpreadTotalMoneyline-4
-108
226
-112o / -108u
-166
Trail Blazers OddsSpreadTotalMoneyline+4
-112
226
-112o / -108u
+140
The Suns are on a 3rd-in-4 back-to-back so I’m worried about shenanigans here with the lineup before tip.
Phoenix is bottom-five in scoring allowed off spot-up possessions. Now, this isn’t just catch-and-shoot, but it includes drives off those. They limit the number of catch-and-shoot threes but at the cost of drives off closeouts without real rim protection.
I’m going with Jerami Grant over 12.5 points in his return from injury tonight. Grant leads the Blazers in points off spot-ups and this is one of Portland’s final exhibitions for his trade value.
PICK: Jerami Grant over 12.5 points (-110)
