Jurickson Profar is a longtime favorite of mine who looked like one of the biggest prospect flameouts of all time when he was released by the Rockies early in 2023, 10 years after he was the No. 1 prospect in baseball on several lists, including my own.
Heading into last offseason, his career value was at 4.8 bWAR/4.9 fWAR, and there wasn’t any reason whatsoever to expect him to turn it around. Instead, he hit .280/.380/.459 for San Diego and went back out into free agency to land the first long-term contract of his career, signing with Atlanta for three years and $42 million — a great deal for the team that must also seem like a huge windfall for the player.
Braves to sign free-agent outfielder Jurickson Profar to 3-year, $42 million deal
Profar had a career year in 2024 at age 31, which is not often an age when we see sudden breakouts, especially not sustainable ones. He did make some pretty significant adjustments from 2023 to 2024, however, and it showed up not just in his superficial numbers but in his underlying batted-ball data, which should give Atlanta fans some reason for optimism.
He signed late in 2023 with Colorado and looked heavier with them than he did when he arrived at spring training with the Padres last year. He also added a higher leg kick last season, improving his timing and loosening up his hips to help him drive the ball more. The results were incredible: Profar set career highs in all three triple-slash stats, homers, walks, hard-hit rate, average exit velocity, chase rate, whiff rate, and so on. He was one of the worst players in the majors in 2023 and hit like he was swinging the morning paper; his average exit velocity jumped up 4.5 mph year over year. His wRC+ of 139 would have ranked second on Atlanta, behind only Marcell Ozuna, with whom he could probably have an intense insult contest over who is the worse defender. (It’s Ozuna.)
I’m a realist here — Profar never had a year like that at the plate before, and this was just his third full season in the majors with a wRC+ over 100, which means his total offensive output was above league average. One year is a significant sample until it’s not — we have obviously seen lots of one-year outliers in baseball history, guys who played out of their mind for a season and then showed up the next spring wearing a “who, me?” expression and hitting like the breakout never happened.
Profar is also a bad defensive left fielder, which will forever break my brain; this guy was a real prospect as a shortstop over a decade ago, moved off the position after a major shoulder injury cost him two seasons, and played decent defense around the infield afterwards. Now he’s like some sort of stone golem out there in left field? How does that happen? Atlanta has to hope that he’s merely below-average in the field and that his bat more than makes up for his glove as it did last year. His 2024 Outs Above Above was minus-6, which was in line with his 2022 OAA of minus-5 in a similar innings total. We will just pretend 2023 never happened and move quietly along to the next paragraph.
There are a lot of ways this could go pear-shaped, but the contract is very team-friendly, and if his production over the next three years is worth even 5 WAR, it’s going to be valuable to a team that’s a perennial contender. Left field was the second-worst position for Atlanta last year on offense, ahead only of their shortstops. Their left fielders as a group hit .229/.278/.364, and Profar has cleared a .278 OBP in every year when he’s had at least 100 PA. If he repeats his 2024 performance, which I concede is unlikely, the upgrade over the at-bats he’s replacing might be 5 WAR. A more realistic way to look at it is that he doesn’t have to repeat last year to be a big improvement for a team that wants to get back to the playoffs.
I was bearish on Toronto’s signing of Anthony Santander earlier this week, and I like the Profar deal quite a bit more for two major reasons. One is that Profar gets on base at a high clip, and Santander never has — Profar has topped Santander’s best single-season OBP of .325 four times in his career. If either player loses some bat speed in their 30s, which happens more often than we’d all like to admit, Profar has the on-base skills to retain more value in decline than Santander does.
The other is, of course, the cost. Profar signed a cheaper deal, and it’s three years, full stop. Santander’s costs more, even if we discount the deferred money, but it has a two-year player option that could really sting Toronto if he tails off at any point before the end of year three. I recognize that Santander could very easily have the better year in 2025. I would still bet on Profar’s deal ending up better for the team than Santander’s.
(Photo: Jayne Kamin-Oncea / USA Today)
