The arguments are already being made about the 2024-25 Penn State wrestling team:
There’s a case to be made that it might be the NCAA’s best college wrestling team of all time. That’s saying something since the program is coming off of a record-setting season where it broke Iowa wrestling‘s NCAA points record set by Dan Gable’s Hawkeyes in 1997.
Iowa is looking to change the narrative with a win on Friday night. That won’t be easy, though as the Hawkeyes have lost three straight and five of the last six to Penn State. With 10 wrestlers all ranked No. 7 or higher for the Nittany Lions, the path to an upset seems narrow for Iowa.
“(With) Where we want to go, it’s big,” said Iowa wrestling coach Tom Brands. “You’re wrestling the best team in the country and it’s a measuring stick.”
Here’s a look at some of the key matchups that would have to go Iowa’s way if the Hawkeyes are going to pull off one of the biggest upsets of the college dual season Friday.
Iowa wrestlers listed first, rankings from Intermat.
More:Iowa wrestling embracing its individual routines ahead of pivotal dual vs. Penn State
125 pounds: No. 26 Joey Cruz (11-6) vs. No. 7 Luke Lilledahl (10-1)
On paper, this looks like a mismatch. However, Cruz’s recent wrestling tells a different story, currently 3-0 since the calendar flipped to 2025. That includes a pair of top-20 wins over No. 18 Nicolar Rivera (8-2 decision) of Wisconsin and No. 16 Brendan McCrone (6-4 decision) of Ohio State. In that time, his offense from neutral has been a dramatic improvement.
Lilledahl is coming off his first loss of his college career as a true freshman vs. Rutgers’s Dean Peterson (No. 10). However, as a two-time age group World champion and one of the top recruits nationally, he still has to be considered the favorite.
This is a chance for Cruz to prove his hot start to 2025 is more than a fluke. It’s also one of the few spots Iowa can get a realistic upset.
133 pounds – No. 3 Drake Ayala (11-1) vs. No. 7 Braedan Davis (7-2)
- Previous matchups: Ayala is 1-0, 4-2 win by decision (Feb. 9, 2024).
Ayala missed last week’s dual vs. Ohio State but is the lone wrestler listed at 133 for Iowa this week.
“When he’s ready, he will be in that lineup,” Brands said after the Ohio State dual. “I think he’ll be in the lineup.”
Having won 10 consecutive matches, including a victory over No. 2 Lucas Byrd of Illinois, this leans toward Ayala to get the victory. However, with it being a one-takedown match last year and Ayala’s status in question, the talented and stingy sophomore Davis cannot be counted out either.
149 pounds – No. 2 Kyle Parco (13-0) vs. No. 4 Shayne Van Ness (11-2)
- Previous matchups: Van Ness is 2-0 vs. Parco, winning 7-2 at the 2023 NCAA Championship and 5-1 at the 2023 NWCA All-Star Classic (exhibition).
Van Ness has had Parco’s number in recent years, but the Hawkeye has looked dominant at times this season, posting a 7-0 record vs. ranked opponents. In both matchups, Parco has been unable to score a takedown on Van Ness despite being in scrambles and in on leg attacks.
This sets up to be one of those matches where one sequence defines the bout, and with Van Ness being difficult to score on, it leans his way.
157 pounds – No. 1 Jacori Teemer (3-1) vs. No. 3 Tyler Kasak (11-0)
Teemer has a unique style as a patient, tactical, yet explosive wrestler. A match against a top-tier competitor like Kasak, who blitzed back from a first-round loss to finish third at NCAAs last year, should set up some awesome sequences of wrestling.
“I trust my skills, I’m a gamer at the end of the day,” Teemer said. “If I need to win, I can pull it out.”
As a returning NCAA finalist, this is a spot where fans and coaches have to trust Teemer to control the style of the match and wrestle the way he wants. If he can do that, even with his recent return from injury, he’ll be in a good place.
“We’re going to need him to deliver,” Brands said Tuesday.
165 pounds – No. 2 Michael Caliendo (13-0) vs. No. 1 Mitchell Mesenbrink (13-0)
- Previous matchups: Mesenbrink is 3-0 vs. Caliendo, all from last year, winning by decision (12-6, dual), by technical fall (23-7, Big Tens) and by major decision (17-9, NCAAs).
Mesenbrink is seemingly the one obstacle in front of Caliendo in his effort for a national title. However, Caliendo has been able to get a takedown in two of his three losses to Mesenbrink, despite the Penn State wrestler dominating those matches otherwise.
At 13-0, Caliendo is wrestling as well as anyone on Iowa’s roster. He has five wins over ranked opponents, all of which were ranked No. 13 or higher at the time they wrestled. He has a bonus-point win in eight of his last nine matches and in 10 of his 13 overall bouts.
Caliendo’s blistering offensive pace has gotten him a long way, but Mesenbrink is more than fine wrestling against that style, winning via technical fall in every match this season that was not a forefit. How Caliendo adjusts his gameplan for the match will be fascinating.
This is a tall task for Caliendo, but a spot where an upset would go a long way.
197 pounds: No. 1 Stephen Buchanan (13-0) vs. No. 4 Josh Barr (12-0)
A graduate student national title contender vs. the highly-talented freshman looking to make his own statement, this is an awesome storyline. The pace of Barr has been the talk of college wrestling the past month, particularly in his 22-6 technical fall over Rutgers’ John Poznanski, where he scored all of his points in the third period.
Buchanan has been equally stellar, at 13-0 with six-ranked wins and 11 bonus-point victories. In his last dance as a college wrestler, he’s already beaten two blue-chip recruits, Oklahoma State’s Cody Merrill and Missouri’s Aeoden Sinclair.
However, Barr looks like a different level of talent, making this another tight one on paper.
285 pounds – No. 11 Ben Kueter (10-2) vs. No. 2 Greg Kerkvliet (10-0)
- Previous matchups: Kerkvliet is 1-0, 9-1 major decision
When these two met last year, Kueter had only been wrestling for about a month and it showed. This time, things will be different with Kueter wrestling full-time now.
How different will things be is the question, though. Kueter is one of the most talented guys in the world with a U20 World title under his belt, but as his former Iowa City High teammate Gabe Arnold explained, he hasn’t always wrestled to that level this season.
“He goes into these matches almost and he’s like almost trying to survive, like ‘No, dude, you’re not a normal heavyweight, Ben Kueter, like you have all the ability in the freaking world, so go out there and freaking do it,'” Arnold said.
In the U20 World finals in 2024, Kueter went toe-to-toe with one of the world’s best, Iran’s Amirreza Masoumi, a multi-time age-group World champion. He was in on single-leg shots but was unable to complete his attacks as Masoumi’s size caused stalemates in the action and the Iranian won by decision.
With a win over Ohio State’s Nick Feldman, one of college wrestling’s best heavyweights, last week, the emotion from Kueter after the win was apparent. It was something that felt needed for his confidence heading into this bout with Kerkvliet, an NCAA champion.
Can Kueter flip the script? His talent says he can, but how he comes out in the first period and wrestles with the size of Kerkvliet will be a big tell. If he can wrestle to his abilities and find a way around Kerkvliet’s size, an upset here would be a dual-changing effort.
Final prediction for Iowa wrestling vs. Penn State
If the Hawkeyes are going to defeat Penn State, the path will need to look something like this:
- Wins at 133, 149, 157 and 197
- Upsets in two of the following three weights: 125, 165 and heavyweight
At 133, 149, 157 and 197, the Hawkeyes are either toss-ups or favored slightly in the match. Those are spots you have to walk away with victories.
From there, due to the potential for bonus points for Penn State at 141 and truly just about anywhere with the talent in State College, winning six of 10 is where Iowa would likely need to be to pull an upset. The spots for upsets to do that are most likely at 125, 165 and heavyweight, since 141 is a heavy mismatch for Iowa. Plus, two of the country’s top wrestlers, Levi Haines (174) and Carter Starocci (184), are looming large and will be tough to get a win against.
It’s a difficult route, one in which Iowa would likely need to need everything to go its way, which is why Penn State is the heavy favorite.
Prediction: Penn State 23, Iowa 9
Eli McKown covers high school sports and wrestling for the Des Moines Register. Contact him at [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter at @EMcKown23.
