- Chiefs’ quest for a three-peat heads to New Orleans. In another instant classic between AFC rivals, Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs found a way to win once again. The K.C. offense moved the ball at will in the first half, netting three touchdowns on four possessions, with only a Mahomes fumble upsetting the string. They hit a third-quarter lull with two punts, allowing the Bills to overcome an 11-point deficit. However, in the big moments, K.C. stepped up big. Mahomes rushed for his second TD of the day early in the fourth quarter to regain the lead. Mahomes then answered a Bills game-tying score with an eight-play, 51-yard field goal drive for the winning score. The star quarterback had the answer time and time again. Whether it was side-arming a pass to Xavier Worthy for a chunk gain, finding JuJu Smith-Schuster for a 30-yarder over the middle, or scrambling for a massive first down or a score. The game’s best player always rose to the occasion. It’s of no surprise that on the biggest stage, Mahomes set season highs in dropback success rate (64.7%) and dropback EPA (+21.5), per Next Gen Stats. It hasn’t always been pretty this season for K.C., but every week, the Chiefs simply find a way to win. Sunday, they knew they needed to put up points to beat Josh Allen and the Bills. Andy Reid’s crew responded by putting up 32 points, the first time they’ve been above the 30-point plateau all season. Mahomes was sensational on key downs, as the Chiefs converted five of nine third downs and their lone fourth-down try. That efficiency allows the march to go on. The Chiefs will play for the NFL’s first-ever three-peat in two weeks.
- Josh Allen, Bills still can’t conquer their nemesis in the postseason. The foe remains unbeaten. Buffalo once again fell short against the kings of the AFC. Allen overcame early jitters to give the Bills a second-half lead, and after the defense surrendered it again, he marched down the field and tied it in the fourth quarter. It was all there, right in front of Allen. With 3:30 left, Buffalo had the ball down three points. A touchdown drive likely finally thwarts Mahomes and the Chiefs. Buffalo marched near midfield, but on fourth-and-5, Allen bailed right into an oncoming K.C. blitz — one they might have seen coming from Steve Spagnuolo — and heaved a prayer. Dalton Kincaid, who got open deep, couldn’t come back to secure the catchable wobbler. Then, Sean McDermott’s defense couldn’t get off the field, giving up two first downs as the Chiefs iced the AFC Championship. It’s a brutal reality for Allen, who played well, avoided turnovers (though he nearly had a few), and made plays late. Even in a season in which he made so many strides as a signal-caller, the result is the same: failure in K.C. Buffalo heads into another offseason with questions about whether it will ever get over that playoff hump. Or, like Sisyphus, the Bills are doomed to eternal punishment, watching their postseason dreams roll back downhill every January.
- Chiefs D repeatedly stuffs Allen. The Chiefs bullied the bully in short yardage. K.C. stuffed Josh Allen short of the line to gain on three QB sneaks, the most run stuffs by a defense against sneaks in a game in the Next Gen Stats era (since 2016). Steve Spagnuolo’s D was ready for the Allen sneak and was as successful as any team at slowing it. K.C. gave up some big plays, but when it needed a stop, it got it. The Chiefs generated two three-and-outs and turned over Buffalo on downs near midfield early in the fourth quarter. Then Spags dialed up the heat, quickening Allen’s process and forcing the incompletion on the Bills’ final drive. When in doubt, Spagnuolo is going to blitz. The Bills knew this, yet it still got Allen to panic and heave a prayer. The Chiefs pestered Allen, generating pressure on 45.9% of his dropbacks, the most pressure the Bills QB faced all season. Allen completed just five of 14 passes for 66 yards and a touchdown under pressure. Pressure bursts pipes, particularly in Kansas City during playoff time.
- Bills defense gets rolled over. In the end, Sean McDermott’s defense was no match for Patrick Mahomes. Buffalo had zero answers early, as Mahomes picked Buffalo apart as if he had answers to the test early. If it hadn’t been for a botched handoff by the K.C. QB that Buffalo recovered, things could have unraveled early. In the first half, the Bills allowed 17 first downs and 217 total yards. The Chiefs didn’t even get to a third down on their first two possessions. Cornerback Christian Benford’s early concussion stung. Former first-round pick Kaiir Elam was forced into duty and struggled mightily. Mahomes picked on the third-year corner incessantly in the first half. Buffalo’s D stood tall in the third quarter but had no answers in the fourth, conceding scores each time the offense answered. On the final drive, the D couldn’t get the ball back to Allen for one final prayer, giving up two easy first downs to seal the loss. The pass rush picked a lousy time to disappear, generating pressure on just six Mahomes passes (26.5%), per NGS, with two sacks. It’s telling that a Chiefs offense that struggled much of the season had one of its most efficient nights of the year and its highest-scoring output.
- Rematch of Super Bowl LVII. Kansas City heads to New Orleans set to face off against the Philadelphia Eagles, a rematch of an epic Super Bowl LVII bout — a 38-35 Chiefs win. Two years ago brought us a high-scoring affair with a hobbled Patrick Mahomes overcoming an ankle injury, racing to set up the game-winning field goal. It was a heavyweight bout, with Jalen Hurts and Mahomes trading blows. What might the rematch have in store? While the rosters have changed — Kadarius Toney played a key role in that game, Saquon Barkley wasn’t in Philly, etc. — the main characters remain: Mahomes, Hurts, A.J. Brown, Travis Kelce, Darius Slay, Chris Jones, Andy Reid, Nick Sirianni, and on and on. The Eagles will attempt to avenge that loss. The Chiefs will try to bookend their three-peat with wins over Philly. New Orleans, here we come.
Next Gen Stats Insight for Bills-Chiefs (via NFL Pro): The Bills played man coverage on nearly half of Patrick Mahomes’ dropbacks (47.1%), the defense’s highest rate across nine career matchups against Mahomes. Mahomes generated +19.3 EPA against the Bills in man coverage, completing 12 of 15 for 169 yards and a TD.
NFL Research: Patrick Mahomes earned the sixth fourth-quarter comeback of his playoff career, breaking a tie with Joe Montana for second all time, and only trails Tom Brady’s nine.
