Is there instant chemistry? Do teams need an adjustment period?
For our purposes here: Does a new acquisition have an immediate impact on game outcomes compared to odds expectations?
It’s going to be a relevant question in the coming days as the NHL trade deadline continues to bring change across the league. In fact, one of the featured games tonight is going to have some fresh (and fresh-again) faces in the Tampa Bay Lightning lineup.
How have teams fared this season when skaters make their debuts with new teams.
There have been 41 such games this season, eight of which have featured more than one player in their first game since a team switch. But one of those eight has included skaters on both sides of the puck — Tuesday’s matchup between the Avalanche (Ryan Lindgren) and the Penguins (Vladislav Kolyachonok). In the other 40 instances, only one team was integrating new talent.
So, what’s the trend? At a broad level, it’s a coin flip. Teams with a debuting player have won 20 times and lost 20 times. The puck line tilts slightly in their favor at 24-16, but not dramatically.
Interestingly, the more high-profile the acquisition, the worse the initial impact seems to be.
Of the 11 instances where a newly acquired player ranked among the top 300 in points, their new team won only four times and covered the puck line just three times.
Narrowing that further to players currently top 200 in points (essentially those with at least 30 points), we get a small group: Mikko Rantanen, J.T. Miller, Martin Necas, Mikael Granlund, Morgan Frost, and Kaapo Kakko. Among them, only Granlund’s Dallas Stars won and covered the puck line in his debut. Every other team with a big-name addition lost.
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Enter Oliver Bjorkstrand. With 37 points, he qualifies as one of the more impactful acquisitions this season. Based on this recent trend, that could put the Lightning at a disadvantage. Notably, the team welcoming a new player was favored in all six of the previous high-profile debut games.
However, there’s a twist: Yanni Gourde is also making his return. He doesn’t hit the 30-point threshold, but had he been healthy, he likely would have. More importantly, he’s returning to familiar territory, having won Stanley Cups with Tampa in 2020 and 2021.
For context, when teams have debuted multiple new acquisitions, they’ve gone 3-4 against both the money line and puck line.
The Sabres may be just 6-17 as road underdogs (11-12 against the puck line), but given the history of slow integrations, they have a puncher’s chance. The +1.5 (-130) puck line and +190 money line offer intriguing value.
Featured games
Buffalo Sabres at Tampa Bay Lightning
7 p.m., Amalie Arena
Lightning (-1.5, +105), -240 money line
Sabres (+1.5, -125), +200 money line
Total 6.5: (Over -105, Under -115)
Jason Zucker has missed four straight, allowing Alex Tuch to resume duty on the top power-play unit. Put Tuch down for over 0.5 total power-play points (+325) given the advantageous odds and elevated chance.
There are props available for all four of the Sabres top defensemen in blocked shots and it’s tempting to take the under with any or all of them
Top-four defenders have averaged 1.56 blocked shots against the Lightning this season and opponents D have blocked a total of 11.9 per game against Tampa Bay (27th in the league).
San Jose Sharks at Colorado Avalanche
Mackenzie Blackwood of the Colorado Avalanche faces his former team tonight. Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images
9:30 p.m., Ball Arena
Avalanche (-2.5, +115), -425 money line
Sharks (+2.5, -135), +320 money line
Total 6.5: (Over +105, Under -125)
At the start of the season when we mentioned matchups between Alexandar Georgiev and Mackenzie Blackwood in the crease, it had a much different feeling. This is the second such clash between the goaltenders since they were swapped for each other in December; Blackwood and the Avs won the first one 4-2 on Dec. 19. The duel prior to that was on Dec. 17, 2023, with Georgiev and the Avs winning 6-2.
There have only been 13 games this season with a spread total at 2.5 and only 14 games this season with a money line favorite at -425 or greater. This contest will make it 14 and 15.
The underdog has beaten that 2.5 spread 10 out of the 13 games. The Sharks, specifically, have beaten the 2.5 spread against them five out of six times.
As for the massive money line, the team with the -425 or greater odds has won 12 out of 14 times, with the Anaheim Ducks responsible for the two upsets. The Sharks have lost six of six on such occasions.
Let’s go Sharks for the +2.5 (-135) spread and Avs on the money line (-425). But you knew that already.
Betting trends
With 986 games on the books, it’s time to check in on the dollar-derby tests.
The only consistent macro bet with a positive gain this season would have been putting $1 on every 6.5 game to be under ($234.00 on 279 wins and lost $199 for a net result of $35.00). But they continue to be fewer and further between, with an increasing percentage of the games given a 5.5 total (65.8 percent since 2025).
But 5.5s have no advantageous global trend:
WinsWinning amountLosing amountNet winningsOVER 6.5199$196.34$279$-82.66UNDER 6.5279$234.00$199$35.00OVER 5.5260$216.40$248-$31.60UNDER 5.5248$251.82$260-$8.18Favorite Money Line382$354.29$401-$46.71Underdog Money Line401$558.69$585-$26.31Favorite Spread382$574.55$604-$29.45Underdog Spread604$334.69$382-$47.31
We only start to get some of the more global trends starting to approach even when we bring in additional criteria:
WinsWinning amountLosing amountNet winningsHome favorite spread248$360.28$363-$2.72Home underdog spread241$127.53$134-$6.47Road favorite spread134$214.27$241-$26.73Road underdog spread363$207.16$248-$40.84
You can see that home favorites and home underdogs aren’t quite the vig-delivery machines for sportsbooks, but it’s not like there is a set and forget option emerging anywhere.
