As we await the first bands of snow to arrive in New Jersey Sunday morning, there has been a slight shift in the winter storm’s forecast overnight. The storm track has nudged slightly to the south and east. That still keeps New Jersey within the “bullseye” of heaviest snow bands. But it suggests a colder solution — meaning there will be less mixing with rain/sleet along the coast. And it does mean moderate to heavy snow is possible a bit farther south than previously thought.
Everything else in this forecast basically remains the same. This is still a complicated weather situation, with both “low snow” and “heavy snow” solutions on the table. I have factored all of these possibilities into my final call snow map. Please pay attention to both the lower and upper bound of each accumulation range.
A Winter Storm Warning and Winter Weather Advisory have been issued for most of the state, and a State of Emergency is now in effect. It’s a good ol’ fashioned Sunday snow day for New Jersey! Here’s a rundown of the latest storm details, so you can plan accordingly.
2.) Timeline
—Sunday Morning (9 a.m. to Noon)… Initial bands of precipitation will drift in from the southwest. Light stuff at first, and mainly confined to southwestern New Jersey. With air temperatures in the 30s, some mixing with rain and/or sleet will occur at onset across southern and coastal New Jersey.
—Sunday Afternoon (Noon to 4 p.m.)… Precipitation will continue spreading across the entire Garden State. Meanwhile, falling temperatures and heavier snowfall will force a transition from wintry mix to straight snow for almost everyone (aside from the southern coast). Road conditions will start to go downhill by late afternoon.
—Sunday Early Evening (4 p.m. to 8 p.m.)… The brunt of the storm, featuring the heaviest and most widespread snow. The snowiest situation shows snowfall rates exceeding an inch an hour in spots, which would lead to a dramatic reduction in visibility and rapidly deteriorating roads. This is the time frame where travel would be an especially bad idea, especially in the warning area.
—Sunday Late Evening (8 p.m. to Midnight)… Snow should wind down quickly, with final flakes expected in the state around Midnight. As precipitation exits, a gusty wind will kick up, driving in arctic air.
—Sunday Night (after Midnight)… Expect clearing skies, a bitter breeze, and very cold air. Low temperatures will dip to around 20 degrees by daybreak, with a wind chill (“feels like” or “apparent” temperature) potentially in the single digits.
3.) Accumulations
—The Snow Bullseye… Mercer-Middlesex-Hudson north… 5 to 8 inches… In this sweet spot of the storm system, mesoscale heavy snow bands will likely develop Sunday evening, leading to quick shovelable and plowable accumulations. I struggled a lot with how to quantify this region’s snow forecast: 4-8″, 6-8″, 3-6+”, etc. In the end, I think 5-8″ best communicates the minimum and maximum snowfall potential for this snowiest part of NJ. Bottom line: A half-foot of snow is significant, and driving will be very difficult for a few hours.
Final snow forecast for Sunday, as of Sunday morning. (Dan Zarrow, Townsquare Media)
Final snow forecast for Sunday, as of Sunday morning. (Dan Zarrow, Townsquare Media)
—The Battleground… Just southeast of the NJ Turnpike corridor, from Salem to Monmouth… 3 to 5 inches… This region looks wintry. And it could honestly swing either way, toward heavier snow if the banding is just right, or toward wetter conditions if temperatures stay too warm. I think 3-5″ is a good, realistic, middle-ground estimate. This region also includes Philadelphia and New York, by the way.
—The Mixed Bag… Inland South Jersey, from Cumberland to Ocean… 1 to 3 inches, with a brief period of rain/sleet mixed in at onset… It will not be “all snow” here, but latest guidance suggests a “mostly snow” event. Light to moderate accumulations will be enough to make things slick. And you will most likely be reaching for the shovel and snow brush by Monday morning.
—The Mixing Bowl… Coastal Cape May, Atlantic, and Ocean… 0 to 1 inch, with substantial rain mixed in until late… Unlike the last two storms, this one is not a South Jersey special. With surface air temperatures in the mid-upper 30s at onset, rain will probably be the initial dominant precipitation type. Then, as things become heavier and temperatures drop past sunset, a transition to wintry mix and then straight snow is expected. There could very well be some accumulation and travel impacts here. Just don’t expect as much as your neighbors to the north.
There are three areas where I think this forecast could most easily be wrong:
1.) I have to wonder if the southward shift in storm track is enough for Sussex and Warren counties to fall out of the heaviest snow bands. I almost painted them in the 3-5″ color, but ultimately decided against it.
2.) The eleventh hour GFS and NAM model runs put a half-foot of snow as far south as Monmouth, Ocean, and Burlington counties. Yikes, quite a bit higher than I have posted here. I think initial mixing and the eventual intrusion of cold, dry air wins out here. But if the brief but heavy “thumping” of snow happens in just the right spot, I could see some segments of Central Jersey overperforming in the end.
3.) A further shift to the southeast. In this case, the NAM model is the hero, and we would get an even blanket of 2 to 4 inches of snow across the board.
4.) Advisories & Impacts
Since Saturday, the National Weather Service has added Mercer, Somerset, and eastern Bergen counties to the Winter Storm Warning. Monmouth, Ocean, and southeastern Burlington counties join the Winter Weather Advisory. This is based on the southward shift and the increase in the snowfall forecast for those areas.
A Winter Storm Warning (pink) has been issued for all or part of 10 counties in New Jersey on Sunday. A less-urgent, less-severe Winter Weather Advisory (purple) covers an addition 7 counties. (NOAA / NWS)
Here is the full rundown of alerts across the state:
—Winter Storm Warning from 1 p.m. Sunday to 1 a.m. Monday for Hunterdon, Mercer, Morris, Somerset, Sussex, and Warren counties.
—Winter Storm Warning from 1 p.m. Sunday to 4 a.m. Monday for Bergen, western Essex, Passaic, and western Union counties.
—Winter Weather Advisory from 10 a.m. Sunday to 1 a.m. Monday for Burlington, Camden, Gloucester, Monmouth, inland Ocean, and Salem counties.
—Winter Weather Advisory from 1 p.m. Sunday to 1 a.m. Monday for Middlesex county.
This geography matches up nicely with my latest forecast. (Warning criteria is 5″ for South Jersey and 6″ for North Jersey. Advisory criteria is 2″ for South Jersey and 3″ for North Jersey.)
5.) What’s Next: Cold, Cold, Cold
As we have been advertising for several days, behind Sunday’s winter storm comes some of the coldest weather New Jersey has seen in years.
It will be our first real foray into “dangerous cold” in over two years. That is when wind chills dip below zero, which can have big implications for human health and safety. Hypothermia and frostbite can occur within a half-hour. And infrastructure will suffer, with power outages and water main breaks possible.
Temperatures will likely remain below-freezing statewide from Sunday evening through at least Friday midday. Over 100 hours in the freezer.
Here is a daily rundown of expected temperatures and wind chills:
—Sunday Night/Monday Morning… Low temperature around 20. Wind chills in the single digits.
—Monday Daytime… Highs only reach the lower-mid 20s. Wind chills no better than the lower teens.
—Monday Night/Tuesday Morning… Dangerous cold. Most lows in the single digits. Wind chills between 0 and -10.
—Tuesday Daytime… Not much better. High temperatures in the upper teens. Wind chills stuck in the singles.
—Tuesday Night/Wednesday Morning… Another dangerously cold night. Lows in the single digits. Wind chills below zero.
—Wednesday Daytime… Again, high temperatures are forecast to only reach the upper teens. A lighter breeze might allow wind chills to also be in the teens.
—Wednesday Night/Thursday Morning… A wind shift will start to slowly moderate temperatures. Lows in the teens, with no appreciable wind chill effect.
—Thursday Daytime… Highs reach the mid 20s.
Please take the snow and cold seriously. Bundle up. Watch your step. Keep smart, stay warm, and be safe out there!
Because you never know what may happen in the bipolar type of winter we have here, you should always be prepared. Do you want to get through the season without freezing?
I’m going to give you the 11 must-have cold-weather items to survive a New Jersey winter.
Gallery Credit: Judi Franco/New Jersey 101.5
Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.
Gallery Credit: Dan Zarrow
