Photo Credit: Nicola Dove/Universal Pictures
Pros
In 2020 writer/director Leigh Whannell reimagined The Invisible Man as a shockingly relevant tale of extreme gaslighting. Made for Blumhouse on a $7M budget, the film did gangbusters business ($28M opening) before being forced to close out early for the pandemic with a still-impressive $64.9M domestic and $139M global total. Now the filmmaker is doing his take on another classic Universal monster with Wolf Man, which features TV stars (Christopher Abbott, Julia Garner), family survival stakes, and a small-scale bottle location. Our panel is predicting an opening in the mid-to-high teens.
Cons
While werewolves have played an integral part in big franchises like Underworld, Goosebumps, and Twilight, the last time the hairy beast was front-and-center in a big theatrical release was Universal’s 2010 The Wolfman led by Benicio del Toro. That troubled production did $62.1M domestic and $142.6M WW on an unwieldy $150M budget. Hopefully, Blumhouse keeping the costs in check (a reported $25M before P&A) will mean profits and a potential franchise-starter this time around. One potential hurdle could be the creature design, which had a botched reveal at the Universal Studios theme park to the chagrin of Whannell.
Pros
After Monday actuals Den of Thieves 2: Pantera performed exactly to our panel’s highest-end prediction of a $15M opening, putting it ahead of Mufasa which also performed well. We said it was anyone’s game last weekend and we meant it. Not so in this frame, where Wolf Man is looking to shred the competition. We still expect Den to potentially cross $30M by Sunday on its way to at least matching the original movie’s $44.9M domestic.
Cons
Den of Thieves 2 is caught in the crosshairs this weekend between the R-rated grown-up audience flooding Wolf Man and family audiences still frequenting Lion King (which has now become PG-rated counter-programming). CinemaScore was a “B+” while PostTrak audiences gave Den 3 & 1/2 stars, so word of mouth is only so-so. A drop to third is not out of the question.
Pros
In frame 4 Mufasa got a huge boost on Saturday with $6.66M for an overall weekend total of $14.2M to place it comfortably at #2. Will we see another overperforming frame this time around? Possibly, with even a small hope of knocking Den of Thieves 2 down to third since the lions are the only family game in town until Dog Man on the 31st.
Cons
We’re now at day 27 of Disney’s typical 60-day theatrical exclusive window but we don’t see this title holding the way Moana 2 has. In fact, this weekend we’re looking at Mufasa doing the same or less than Moana 2 did in Frame 7 ($6.5M). As of Monday, this title sits at $190.7M domestic, so it will probably drag itself across the $200M mark by Sunday. Globally the movie sits perched at a current $543.2M total, which means it may never hit $650M let alone $700M. Will this ultimately be a profitable brand extension for the studio? Yes. Do these numbers point to more Lion King movies in the future? Doubtful, this entry barely scraped by aided by a Christmas surge.
Photo Credit: Nicola Dove/Universal Pictures
